Future scenarios for mental health support within the UK Armed Forces Community

The UK Armed Forces charities sector supports a sizeable community of UK Armed Forces personnel, veterans and families who can face unique risks and challenges to their mental health. As a result of trends such as the changing character of warfare, evolving societal attitudes towards mental health, and innovation in mental health interventions, the Armed Forces Community is facing a dynamic mental health landscape that necessitates forward-looking strategic responses. To effectively plan for the future, the Armed Forces charities sector requires a better understanding of what the future landscape of military mental health may look like. This includes understanding how the demand and need for mental health services among the Armed Forces Community may evolve, but also how mental health treatments may develop.

The RAND Europe Centre for Futures and Foresight Studies is working in collaboration with leading veterans' mental health charity Combat Stress to identify future trends out to 2045 which may affect mental health support for the UK Armed Forces Community and develop scenarios to understand the evolving demand for and nature of mental health services. 

The research will employ a structured, participatory scenario planning methodology. In the first phase, horizon scanning will be conducted to identify key future trends and developments, drawing on a review of open-source data, literature, and interviews with subject matter experts. In the second phase, the research team will develop a range of future scenarios for UK Armed Forces Community mental health support, charting out alternative future outcomes for critical factors shaping the mental health landscape.

The research, funded by the Forces in Mind Trust, will explore the following questions:

• What future trends and developments are anticipated to impact provision and demand for mental health services among the UK Armed Forces Community out to 2045?
• Which of these trends are most likely to impact future mental health support for the Armed Forces Community?
• What are the implications for Combat Stress and the wider Armed Forces charities sector?

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